Oil prices rose to $106.80 per barrel in early trading on Friday, as the United States and Iran remain at a standoff over control of the Strait of Hormuz — and the consequences for summer travelers become impossible to ignore.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose nearly 5% from Wednesday’s close after Washington and Tehran escalated their tit-for-tat seizures of commercial ships in the strategically vital waterway. The Strait carries about 20% of the world’s oil supply and between 25% and 30% of global aviation fuel – and has been effectively closed to normal traffic since the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28.
The ripple effects in global aviation are now serious. Jet fuel prices have more than doubled since the outbreak of war, and European airlines – which import roughly a third of their jet fuel from Middle Eastern refineries – are among the hardest hit by the crisis. Germany’s Lufthansa announced this week that it would cut 20,000 flights from its schedule in the fall in an effort to reduce fuel consumption. The figure immediately caused alarm among aviation analysts.
The warning signs are now coming from the highest levels of international energy management. The International Energy Agency confirmed on Thursday that several European countries could face jet fuel shortages within six weeks if traffic in the Strait of Hormuz does not resume. IEA Director Fatih Birol described the situation as “the greatest challenge to global energy security in history,” adding that Europe’s imports of jet fuel from the Middle East “are now effectively close to zero.”
Italian airports in Bologna, Milan, Venice and Treviso have already started rationing refueling services due to limited fuel availability. Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary warned passengers to expect between 5% and 10% of summer flights cancellations if the Strait remains closed. In the United States, Alaska Airlines announced that rising fuel prices are expected to add $600 million in additional costs between April and June alone – costs that the airline will pass directly to passengers through higher fares and higher baggage fees. Across the U.S. industry, domestic airfares are up 18% and international fares are up 7.5%, according to travel research firm Going.com.
Crucially, analysts warn that even a full reopening of the Strait today would not bring immediate relief. “It will last at least until July,” said Matt Smith, chief U.S. analyst at energy consultancy Kpler. “And even that may be optimistic at this point.”
For now, travel experts are urging anyone with summer flights booked to get travel insurance immediately, switch to refundable fares where possible and keep a close eye on airline schedules in the coming weeks.
Sources: Al Jazeera, “Oil soars above $106 a barrel as US and Iran stall in Strait of Hormuz,” April 24, 2026 · NPR, “Airlines on the verge of running out of jet fuel due to war with Iran,” April 23, 2026
