A sharp decline in Canadian travel to the United States by 2025 will inflict real economic pain on states that have historically relied on cross-border tourism. revealing how sensitive regional tourism economies are to international travel patterns and geopolitical dynamics.
New research indicates that key border states such as Michigan, Ohio, Illinois, Pennsylvania, North Dakota and Montana are experiencing significant declines in Canadian visitor numbers, with some declining to even 30% year-on-year.
States along the U.S.-Canada border have long benefited from short road trips, weekend shopping, seasonal outdoor recreation and repeat visits from Canadian tourists, who collectively funnel billions of dollars into hotels, restaurants, events and retail sectors.
However, The number of cross-border movements has fallen dramaticallyRecent data shows that the number of Canadian land border crossings has dropped significantly and air travel has declined, further exacerbating the trend. Facebook
Economists and entrepreneurs trace some of this slump to broader political and economic frictions between the two countries. Tariff disputes, diplomatic tensions and perceptions surrounding U.S. visa and travel policies have all played a role in dampening Canadians’ enthusiasm for travel south.
According to a recent report, Canadian tourism contributed more than $20.5 billion to the U.S. economy by 2024, supporting about 140,000 American jobs, mostly in the hospitality and service industries — numbers that are now at risk as travel contracts.
Local entrepreneurs are feeling the pressure. In border areas from Michigan’s Upper Peninsula to small towns in North Dakota, hoteliers report empty rooms and fewer restaurants, especially during peak weekends that once drew large numbers of Canadian visitors. Anecdotal stories underscore the dramatic shift: as one industry observer put it: “I can count the number of Canadian visitors on one hand.”
States reporting the most significant declines
A Joint Economic Committee of December 2025 (minority) report found that, from January through October 2025, passenger vehicle crossings at the U.S.-Canada border fell by nearly 20% overallwith several border states experiencing much steeper declines.
Among the sharpest reported declines:
- New Hampshire has seen a sharp decline in the number of Canadian visitors — reported last summer at about 30% — which an analysis by Congress and local businesses attributes to tariffs, tighter border controls and increased political friction that also reduces through traffic in northern New England.
- Vermont: The report quotes a decrease of more than 28% in the number of passenger vehicle crossings from Canada during the first ten months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024 – an outsized hit for small towns and ski resorts that rely on repeat Canadian weekend traffic.
- Idaho: Crossings to Idaho were drop of more than 27% during the same period from January to October, a notable signal for border communities and mountain recreation corridors that rely on Canadian road trips for fuel stops, lodging and groceries.
- Maine: The report places Maine’s decline on about 25% for passenger vehicle crossings in the first ten months of 2025. Additional local analysis points to scale and spillover: Maine had almost 750,000 fewer land crossings through November 2025and taxable retail sales and hospitality receipts in the border area are weaker relative to statewide trends.
- Washington: Washington also saw a steep contraction, as shown in the JEC report a decrease of more than 24% in passenger vehicle crossings for January-October 2025. Axios’ reporting in Seattle similarly described a 24% drop during that time frame, underscoring the importance for Bellingham-area businesses and the I-5 corridor built around quick cross-border visits.
In New England, the impact is often described in very local terms: empty parking lots, fewer walk-ins and lower occupancy on weekends. One border business owner, quoted in the JEC report, succinctly summarized the commitment: ‘If our neighbors stay away, our margins disappear’ said Kyle Daley, owner of Soloman’s Store in West Stewartstown, New Hampshire.
7 main factors behind the decline
Several intertwined economic, political and policy-driven forces are contributing to the sharp decline in Canadian travel to the United States. While no single issue can explain the decline, the following factors collectively illustrate why Canadian visitation has fallen so sharply in 2025:
1. Rising political and trade tensions
Ongoing tariff disputes, diplomatic tensions and general political friction between the two countries have affected Canadians’ willingness to travel south. The negative sentiment and uncertainty surrounding bilateral relations have made travel to the US less predictable and less attractive.
2. Higher travel costs and currency pressure
A weaker Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar has made cross-border travel significantly more expensive. Hotel stays, restaurant bills, fuel, attractions and shopping trips now cost Canadians significantly more than in previous years, reducing discretionary travel.
3. Stricter US visa and travel policies
New or higher fees, stricter controls at border crossings and additional administrative steps have led to what many travelers consider to be difficult entry procedures. These barriers discourage spontaneous or short-notice travel – traditionally a major driver of Canadian visits to U.S. border states.
4. Changes in travel behavior after the pandemic
Travel habits have not yet been fully normalized. Canadians are increasingly choosing domestic travel within Canada or exploring alternative international destinations that are perceived as more affordable or hospitable.
5. Reduced air and land connectivity
Cuts to certain cross-border air routes, along with lower travel volumes at land borders, have weakened the transportation ecosystem that once made American getaways easy. Fewer flights and higher fares further depress demand.
6. Competitive alternatives abroad
Destinations such as Mexico, the Caribbean and parts of Europe have actively targeted Canadian travelers with attractive packages, lower costs and simplified entry requirements. This competition has siphoned away potential visitors from the US states.
Together, these factors have led to a measurable and sustained decline in Canadian tourism, placing significant economic pressure on U.S. border states that have long depended on this reliable visitor base.
